Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Week 1 Picks Revisted

Time to take a look back at my picks for the first weekend of the NFL season.


Titans at Steelers: Give me the Titans in what really won't be an upset. I think people are making way too much of Albert Haynesworth's departure. I also think Lawrence Timmons not playing will be a problem for the Steelers. The Titans should be better in the passing game with WRs Nate Washington and rookie Kenny Britt and also TE Alge Crumpler turning it on. I am also betting that Haynesworth's replacement, Tony Brown, will have a big game tonight. The guy did nothing but make plays in the preseason and I expect that to carry over. The most slept on defensive end in the game might be Kyle Vanden Bosch but he won't be when he shows up tonight.

This was a frustrating game to watch as the Titans had opportunities to win and their defensive coordinator just refused to blitz. But a loss is a loss and this was a loss


Dolphins at Falcons: Falcons. Michael Turner is a beast and don't see Miami's D being able to stop him. The addition of perinnial Pro Bowl TE Tony Gonzales will open up the fiend for Matt Ryan as well. The defense will improve with the addition of Mike Peterson and rookie Peria Jerry. If this game was played in Miami I might switch the pick but since its in ATL I have to roll with the dirty birds.


Broncos at Bengals: Bengals. I think Carson Palmer is poised to have another big year. I also think Cedric Benson is going to have a big year after underachieving to start his career. The Broncos are in disarray and I don't see it all just coming together for them this weekend.

But for a piss poor effort of prevent defense I would have called this one almost exactly right. But it happened and it was a loss.

Vikings at Browns: Vikings. No explanation needed.

Exactly! Win

Jaguars at Colts: Colts. I hate to say this because I really like the guy but I think Jack Del Rio is self destructing right in front of us. This is a guy who gave Matt Jones several second chances but jettisoned the heart and soul of his defense and maybe his whole team, Mike Peterson, because he dared challenge him. Something that most players with pride and heart would do if they were getting dumped on. Gone also is Fred Taylor and I think a lot of people have an inflated sense of what Maurice Jones-Drew can do as a starter. He is an electfifying player no doubt, but I see him as a complementary player, not a guy who can carry the load. His comments about being tackled low, which came off as coochie to me, didn't endear himself any more to me thats for sure. The Colts are the Colts. I realize Tony Dungy isn't there anymore but life goes on and they still have Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark. That should be enough for a home victory in their division to start off the year.


Lions at Saints: Saints. Duh.

It was even worse than I thought! Win

Cowboys at Buccaneers: Cowboys. Obviously my loyalties are divided on this one. I grew up a diehard Cowboys fan and I played for years with the Bucs. But I will always keep it realy when it comes to football and the Cowboys are just a better team. With Byron Leftwich as their starting QB the Bucs are going to have to have some phenomenal pass blocking to keep the Dallas D from getting after him. The Bucs didn't really have their starting WRs during the preseason either to work on timing. The Bucs D on the other hand will be missing two starters basically as Tanard Jackson sits out his first of a four games for a suspension and Jermaine Phillips moves from starting weakside linebacker, where he practiced all off season, to starting safety. I think that is going to create several problems. Keep in mind that the Bucs already were going to have two new starters as their outside backers, but also Tanard is really above and beyond the best coverage safety that the Bucs have. With Phillips and Sabby Piscatelli at Safety I am really worried about the matchups with the Cowboys Pro Bowl TE Jason Witten as well as second year TE Martellius Bennett. If there could be one way for the Bucs to pull this one out it might be special teams. If Clifton Smith can get a big return for a TD or the Bucs can make the Cowboys turn it over in the punt return game then they might have a shot. Look for second year RB Felix Jones to have a huge day.

Right on a lot, wrong on some. Still a win.

Eagles at Panthers: Panthers. I like the Eagles a lot this year but I don't like this match up for them. Styles make fights as they say in boxing and the Eagles' starting O Line never practiced or played together in the preseason. When you are facing a guy like Julius Peppers that is gonna be a problem. I also don't think the Eagles defense is going to match up well with the running game of Smash and Dash. Look for DeAngelo Williams to have a big day.

This was the only game that I totally missed all weekend. The Panthers have a lot of stuff to fix on their team, and with their head coach staying with Jake Delhomme it looks like its going to take a long time. I don't know how I can pick them the rest of the year unless they are playing the Lions. Loss.

Chiefs at Ravens: Ravens. This will get ugly, fast.

Got ugly late. Win

Jets at Texans: Jets. I don't think Mark Sanchez will look good at all and Mario Williams may end up taking his head off at some point but overall the Jets are just a better team, especially with their defense right now.


Redskins at Giants: Giants. But it will be closer than people think. I expect Jason Campbell will have a big day but in the end the defense will once again fail them.


49ers at Cardinals: 49ers. What, why are you looking at me like that? I'm dead serious. I don't see the Cards being able to stop Frank Gore in the running game and Jimmy Raye is going to feed him until his legs fall off then give the scraps to promising rookie Glen Coffee. The 49ers are also much improved in their pass defense and I think Greg Manusky is going to have those guys going. I think the loss of Edgerrin James will be a bigger problem for the Cards than they initially thought and I think that Coach Singletary will have his team more prepared.

Big win. I like that I called this one when not many people saw it coming. The 49ers are back!

Rams at Seahawks: Seahawks. I hate to say it but Rams will suck again this year until they find a new QB. It is what it is.


Bears at Packers: Bears. I know the Packers are the feel good pick to rise up this year but I actually think the Bears will be the team that is resurgent. Quarterback Jay Cutler is going to have a big year starting with the first game. And John Forte will be tearing it up in the backfield. The defense is going to be much improved and watch for the defensive line, led by my old coach Rod Marinelli, to harrass the hell out of Aaron Rodgers. It will be close but I think the Bears pull it out in the end.

Again I get screwed on an upset special. First Urlacher goes down after playing out of his mind at the beginning of the game, then Jay Cutler proceeds to sell the farm for 10 cents an acre. Yep, they got me. Loss


Bills at Patriots: Patriots. My only comment is that Randy Moss will
show TO what a real franchise WR looks like. This game will be out of
hand quickly.

Wrong on analysis, right on result. Win.

Chargers at Raiders: Chargers. Raiders are still clowns although I think
JaMarcus Russell will be better than most think this year. I know a lot of
people might be tempted to pick the Raiders in an upset with the Shawne
Merriman controversy going on, but the Chargers have too much talent from guys
not named Merriman for that to ever happen. One prediction, the Chargers
may have the most talented group of WRs in the game this year. They
definitely have the biggest collection I have ever seen in the league.


So I got 12 right and 4 wrong. Not bad if I do say so myself. Check me out again in a few days for my picks for week 2.

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