Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pre Camp Predictions: Defense

Yesterday I took a look at the camp battles on the offensive side of the ball for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Today I want to take a look at the defensive side of the ball where there is probably a lot more volatility at every position.

Before we get started though I want to state unequivocally that I believe the defense will take a major jump forward this year. The combination of Coach Morris making the calls and most of the guys having played in the system for part of the season last year and having practiced in it all offseason is going to pay major dividends in my opinion. The camp battles are going to be what they are but if we stay healthy this season on defense we are going to give people major headaches.

Now lets go ahead and break this down position by position.

Defensive Line

I considered breaking this up into defensive tackles/defense ends but the truth is the defensive line has to play as a unit in order to be successful. That is one of the major deficiencies I saw last year was that while certainly some guys played better than others, I rarely saw the kind of coordination that it takes to really put the pressure on the opposing offensive linemen and quarterbacks. Aside from the Green Bay Packers game, which was a beautiful thing to behold, it appeared that there was just four guys doing their own thing instead of one group fighting for the same goals. That is going to have to change and I think it will.

Obviously there are at least two guys whose names you can write in pen on the roster for the defensive line right now. That would be our 1st and 2nd round picks, Gerald McCoy and Brian Price respectively. McCoy almost assuredly will be our starting undertackle and it would appear that Price will be given every opportunity to start at nose tackle. Now I have written before why it would probably be a mistake to expect too much from either guy this season but I know some folks won't listen. But for me my biggest hope for them is that they stay healthy for all 16 games this year. If they can do that it will mean that they will be gaining experience week after week after week and presumably they with that experience they will get better along the way.

Last year we carried nine defensive linemen on the roster to open the season. Four defensive tackles and five defensive ends. Well to be clear one of those defensive ends, Kyle Moore, had double duty as a tackle as well. So after the two rookies Roy Miller is probably a safe bet to make the team if not start. I know that there will be a push to get Price into the starting line up but I liked what I saw from Roy most of last year. He is quick off the ball, stout, and he has a knack for rushing against a double team. As for the fourth defensive tackle, it goes against conventional wisdom but I have this sneaking suspicion that the starter from last year, Ryan Sims, will make a push to make the team.

I can't be sure of that until the bullets start flying but as I look at the guys he will be competing against I don't see anyone who he isn't obviously better than. I also thought he was more suited to be a nose tackle in our regular "Tampa 2" defense last year and when the scheme reverted back he played a helluva lot better. Still not world beating good, but he did give center's fits at times. If he is motivated and humble enough to accept a back up role, I think a spot on the team is right there for him.

But there is a conundrum if you read this analysis closely. Only one guy out of the top 4 right now is going to be groomed as an undertackle and that's McCoy. That's not to say that Price or Miller couldn't also play undertackle, but they are going to be in a steel cage death match trying to win the starting job at nosetackle so learning and working on playing undertackle is probably going to be secondary to both of them. Even though Sims has played undertackle in previous seasons he is better suited to play nose.

This the primary reason I questioned the Bucs taking Price in the second round after having taken McCoy in the first. On paper the best use of our talent would be to have both Price and McCoy vying for the under tackle position. But because of his draft positioning McCoy HAS to play. And Price can't really ride the bench either as a high 2nd round pick. And the only way they both play is if they don't play the same position. Its going to be interesting seeing how this rotation works out. I have a strong feelign it won't be near as easy as the Buccaneers brass has tried to let on.

With the defensive ends I'd say Stylez G. White is also a safe bet to make the team. He was, by far, our best and most consistent pass rusher last year. As I have said previously, he just has to get into the best shape of his life so that he doesn't have to come out of the game and if he stays healthy double digit sacks is not only attainable, its likely.

I believe that when its all said and done the guy backing him up, at least on paper, will be Michael Bennett. Bennett was plucked off the Seahawks' practice squad last year and he showed me some flashes last year. He had one of the best get offs on the defensive line and he has really good functional strength. Its unfortunate that the Bucs primarily played him on the left side last year and then right when they changed defenses and he may have had more of an opportunity to show what he can do, he got hurt. I think at his size and with his tools he is much more of a right end who can spell White whenever he needs a blow.

At left defensive end you can get your popcorn ready for an all out battle royal. I predicted after the season ended that the Bucs would practically hand Kyle Moore the job and they have. Yes I have heard all the stories about him getting in better shape and looking good in OTAs but unless Tim Crowder fell off the map you would have to say that on the merits he deserved first dibs at the position. After all for most of last year he was the primary backup to starter Jimmy Wilkerson and he even started a couple games. But it is what it is and Moore being a 5th round draft pick gives him a leg up.

But you have to remember that Crowder himself was a former 2nd round pick and he is still a young guy. I can't foresee a scenario where he just concedes that position to Moore. And to be honest I'm definitely not sure that Moore is the better player at the moment. Barring injury I think this battle will go all the way down to the wire with both guys sticking on the team.

That leaves one open roster spot. I wish I could say for sure who will get it but with three rookies and an under achiever amongst the guys left over fighting for it, I just don't have a clue. I think the late draft pick Erik Lorig may have a head start if he can be a guy who plays both inside and out. If not then that is the kind of guy who I would bet money on. Last year that guy was Moore, but if he is the starter he can't really be that kind of "swing" guy. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Linebackers

The three starters at linebackers are pretty entrenched right now. It appears that Coach Morris has big plans for Quincy Black as the starting Sam linebacker, Barrett Ruud is primed to have a career year, and Geno Hayes in his second year as a starter may be on the cusp of big things. I like all three players and I think Hayes in particular may have a break out year. But after those guys there are a lot of question marks.

Adam Heyward is probably the most versatile of the backups and a guy the Bucs actually would trust if he were pressed into action. But while he is physical he doesn't have the kind of size nor speed that you look for in a starting NFL linebacker. Then you have Jon Alston and Niko Koutouvides who will probably get first dibs on the other two backup linebacker spots but neither guy is anything special. I know a lot of people are high on late draft pick Dekoda Watson but I am not sold on how quickly he will transition from the college game. Instead I think he along with fellow rookie Rico McCoy will have opportunities to make their name on special teams this year.

Last year we kept seven linebackers and at the moment we have nine on the roster. Only two guys are going to be cut but at this point that could be anybody not named Black, Ruud, or Hayes. What we have to hope however is that our starters stay healthy because I just don't trust anyone one else to play a lot for us.

Secondary

This group has the potential to be the strongest on the whole team. You have two guys with Pro Bowl potential in cornerback Aqib Talib and free safety Tanard Jackson. You have a potential Hall of Famer in corner Ronde Barber and you have a third round pick in Myron Lewis who is tall and physical and will likely be the starting nickelback.

But there is one position that could be the weakest link and that is the strong safety position. At this point there's no need to sugarcoat it, I felt that Sabby Piscitelli was our Achilles Heel against both the run and the pass last year. You would like for your strong safety to be both a physical presence when he is in the box against the run and a guy with the ball skills to be able to have the corner's back on deep balls in Cover 2. At the least you would want them to be strong at one or the other. But instead Sabby sucked at both for much of the year.

Now there is no law that says he can't get better. However its my opinion that he will not get that much better this fast to be a positive factor for our defense. Thankfully one of the only free agents the Bucs brought in this year was Strong Safety Sean Jones formerly of the Eagles. He is a guy who has had a knack for coming up with interceptions but he will also lay the wood in the running game. For whatever reason he didn't fit into the Eagles' plans anymore but one team's trash can be another team's treasure.

But here's the deal, I don't think either guy is necessarily a "game changer". So for me I don't really have a favorite. What I believe is that whomever gets the starting job will have to play so well to beat out the other that whomever it is will not be the weakest link. And that's good enough for me for this year.

After the starters there is some talent but nobody that I think is going to push for playing time. Corey Lynch and Cody Grimm are going to make or not make the team on special teams. Elbert Mack is a guy I like because of his heart but his propensity for getting toasted on the deep ball last year was no bueno. E. J. Biggers had some buzz once upon a time but we just haven't seen enough of him at this point. And then you have some other guys that I will be honest in saying I have never heard of.

Last year we kept nine defensive backs and I see no reason for that number to change. Odds are if I didn't mention one of the guys by name, they are going to be a long shot to make it.

At the end of the day one thing worth remembering is this.  While our defense finished at our near the bottom in a lot of categories, most notably against the run, our passinig defense was in the top ten in the NFL.  Yes the whole getting the ball run down our throats thing played into that, but we also had two guys with 5 interceptions a piece.  The potential is there and if we can get our run defense better there really is no limit on how good this defense can be this year.  That's not happy talk, that's a fact.

Xs And Os

You asked for it, you got it. Several readers over at joebucsfan asked for another post with more of the Xs and Os aspects of the Falcons game so I decided to give them what they wanted. Here is the new post and I hope everyone enjoys it!

New Post Up At JoeBucsFan

My new post is up over at joebucsfan.com. Please go over and let me know what you think.

Makin Moves

Several people have asked me who we should draft next April. I will say to them you what I said to them, I am not a big draft guy. I don't keep tabs on draft boards and all that and I don't even know how many picks we have in the draft next year.

Having said that, here is how I would approach the draft next year just based on watching a lot of college football games this year.

My first choice would be to trade down and pick up draft picks. We are going to have some holes that need to be filled next year no matter who is the defensive coordinator.

Failing that if we have a top 5 pick then I would go with Rolando McClain the linebacker out of Alabama. The guy is a physical specimen who is big, athletic and explosive. You can line him up all over the place and he will make plays for you. He is also big enough to take on blockers, shed them and make the play. And best of all he is a very smart player who is a student of the game. He is definitely a guy who I think will come into somebody's came next year, learn the defense backwards and forward, and end up starting and probably being a leader for that team.

But if we can trade down I would definitely go for Eric Berry the safety out of my alma mater Tennessee. I know traditionally safeties are not drafted very high in the first round but I would make an exception for this guy. The reason being is that we have Jeremy Shockey and Tony Gonzales in our division now. We need a safety who is big enough and athletic enough to come down in the box and cover those guys tough or we are going to have problems.

Also Ronde Barber for as good as he is playing can't play forever. Berry would be the perfect replacement for him at nickel back. The guy is physical and he loves to come on blitzes and blow plays up. He is a ball hawk as well who has really good hands.

If we could draft Berry we would have one of the best young safety combos in the game with him and Tanard Jackson.

If we can't get either Berry or McClain then I would go for the cover corner at Alabama Javier Arenas or Taylor Mays the safety out of USC.

As far as defensive tackle I personally would rather the Bucs go out and sign somebody in free agency. High on my list would be former FSU player and pro bowler Darnell Dockett. The guy is a load and he can pass rush from just about any position on the defensive line. I know he has had some public confrontations with management out in Arizona but his teammates and coaches love the guy and he shows up every Sunday. And lets be real here, having a player from FSU will help get some people back on that season ticket list. Im just being real about it.

I would still look for a defensive tackle in the draft but it would be in the 4th or 5th round and it would be a big guy like a nose tackle. The draft always has plenty of those kinds of guys who slip through the cracks.

I think its all but assured that Ryan Sims won't be here next year. I am not sure about Chris Hovan but if I had a vote I would say we keep him because he is still productive and he is good in the community as well as being a leader in the locker room.

Now let me repeat this for you, this isn't really my deal. I'm sure Mel Kiper might look at this post and laugh. But from what I have seen watching football this year, these are the guys who could really help us next year to get our defense back on track. It is what it is.

Who Done It?

If there is one thing that I hate almost as much as the Bucs losing this season, its the chattering of sports pundits and some fans who really don't know a lot about football. Every single week these pundits say and those fans repeat some of the most erroneous reasoning you can imagine about why we didn't play well on offense or defense. Today is yet another example of this phenomenon.

The Saints ran the ball down our throats in the second half today but diagnosing WHY they ran the ball down our throats is always harder than just saying this group or that group got their ass kicked. Unfortunately nowadays people LOVE to blame one group or another whether its really their fault or not. Hell I even saw a play today where the Saints got a big run against the defense and the announcers showed the replay and totally missed who was actually responsible for the run breaking because they were too busy trying to give credit to a Saints offensive lineman who in reality didn't even make all that great of a block.

So I have decided to go through and break down the big runs that happened in the second half and tell you who was at fault. At least then after you have read this post you can speak more intelligently about what our problems are on defense at least for this game.

1. 3rd Quarter 6:55

The Saints were in a one back set. They had a tight end and two wide receivers to the defense's right and one wide receiver to the defense's left. The tight end backed off of the line and then motioned to the left and then motioned back out to the right so that he was just outside of our right defensive end, Tim Crowder, on the snap.

Defensively our defensive line was in a strong right call which meant that our right end, Crowder, was in a head up position initially on the tight end. The right defensive tackle, Chris Hovan, was in the B gap outside of the left guard, the weak tackle, Ryan Sims was head up on the right guard, and Jimmy Wilkerson was lined up outside of the right tackle. The defensive call told both Crowder and Hovan to slant inside. We were in nickel defense with Ronde Barber on the inside receiver on the defensive right side of the formation and Torrie Cox lined up at corner to that side. And we were in some form of cover 2 with both safeties deep.

On the snap of the football the receivers on the right side of the formation both blocked the Cox and Barber. The tight end blocked down on the slanting Crowder. The left tackle pulled outside of the tight end. The left guard and center double teamed the slanting Hovan, the right guard blocked inside on Sims and the right tackle went up to the safety.

Now on this play when the tackle pulls Barrett Ruud has to spill that block which he did a good job of. But then Geno Hayes has to be fast over the top of that block in order to make the tackle. He took a bad angle and missed the tackle so instead of holding the running back, Pierre Thomas to about a 3 or 4 yard gain it ended up being an 18 yard gain.

Culprit: Geno Hayes.

2. The very next play.

The Saints come out with another one back set initially. There is a tight end in a two point stance on the line to the defense's left and one wide receiver on that side. And there is a tight end lined up off the ball to the defense's right side and one wide receiver to that side as well.

The Bucs called the strength to the defense's left. That meant Wilkerson was lined up outside of the tight end on the defense's left, Sims was lined up in the B gap on the right guard, Roy Miller in for Hovan was head up on the left guard and Crowder was lined up on the outside shoulder of the left tackle. We had base defense in so Quincy Black was back in at Sam linebacker to the left. The coverage was once again some form of cover 2 with both safeties deep.

Before the snap the tight end off the ball motioned back into the backfield creating an I set. On the snap the tight end to the defense's left base blocked Wilkerson to the outside in the D gap. The right tackle and right guard double teamed Sims. The center and left guard double teamed Miller. The left tackle attempted to base block Crowder but he made a pretty good move to defeat the block and slide off inside. The tight end now playing fullback led up on Ruud who took it on with his left shoulder. Black filled the frontside A gap because of the fullback's block. And Hayes filled the backside B gap.

There was just one problem, nobody was in the C gap inside of Wilkerson. And because of that the running back, Mike Bell, cut back in said C gap and took off for 28 yards.

Now there are two choices here as to who is at fault. Either Wilkerson was supposed to be head up on the tight end in which case he would have C gap and he would be at fault, OR the defense was set up for him to be outside the tight end in which case the design of the defense was faulty and the defensive coordinator at fault. Now there is some evidence from the rest of the game that has me leaning in a certain direction on this one but I will split the difference and blame them both and let you figure it out.

Culprit: Jimmy Wilkerson or Jim Bates.

3. 5:17 still in the 3rd quarter 2nd down and 2 at our 16 yard line.

This was the same exact play literally as play number 2 however this time we had Kyle Moore in at right defensive end and Michael Bennett in as left defensive end. And just like Wilkerson Bennett played the tight end block to the outside and just like on the earlier play Bell cut back to the C gap and nobody was there. He ended up with 13 yard on that carry. Again I will let you decide who was ultimately guilty here.

Culprit: Michael Bennett or Jim Bates.

4. Very next play.

The Saints come out in an I back set with the tight end to the defense's left. There is one wide receiver to the left and one wide receiver to the right.

We had a strong left call on. Bennett at left end lines up outside the tight end. Sims was in the B gap outside the right guard. Miller was head up on the left guard. Moore was lined up outside the left tackle. We were still in base defense with Black in the game.

On the snap the tight end goes up to block Black who takes him on and sheds the block. The right tackle and right guard double team Sims. The center blocked back on Miller. The left guard pulled to the defense's left and went up on Ruud who correctly spilled the block. The left tackle hinge blocked on Moore. Hayes didn't read the pulling guard on his side and instead went up into the line and ended up getting caught up in the wash. He was the guy who Ruud thought he was spilling the play to. Once again Hayes wasn't there over the top and so Black along with Sabby Piscitelli and Tanard Jackson all tried to make the tackle but Bell ended up spinning off of them into the endzone.

Culprits: Primary Geno Hayes, Secondarily because of missed tackles Sabby Piscitelli, Quincy Black, and Tanard Jackson.

5. 3rd quarter 00:42 left 1st and 10

The Saints come out with an I backfield set. They have two tight ends to the defense's left with one on the ball and the other outside of him off the ball. They have a wide receiver to the defense's right. Before the snap the tight end off the ball motions to the defense's right until they are in front of our right defensive end.

The defense is in a strong left call. The left end is Bennett who lines up outside of the tight end. Sims lines up in the B gap outside of the right guard. Miller is lined up head up on the left guard. Moore was lined up outside of the left tackle. We were in base defense with Black lined up on the left side. The coverage looks to be some form of cover 3 with Sabby Piscitelli down in the box to the left side.

On the snap of the ball the tight end base blocked Bennett. The right tackle went up and blocked Black. The right guard base blocked Sims. The center went up to block Ruud. The left guard blocked down on Miller. The left tackle went up and blocked Hayes inside. The tight end who came over in motion cuts Moore at his inside leg and gets him on the ground keeping him from staying in the C gap. Ronde who came over with the motion ends up blitzing behind the tight end's block. The fullback led up on Piscitelli. Thomas starts behind his fullback then cuts back into the C gap where Moore is supposed to be. He ends up picking up 24 yards on that run.

Culprit: Kyle Moore

6. 4th quarter 12:15 3rd and 7

The Saints came out in an I back field with two wide receivers to the defense's left and one wide receiver to the defense's right.

We were in our 3rd down package with Bennett at left end, Wilkerson at left defensive tackle, Hovan at right defensive tackle, and Greg (Stylez) White at right end. In our 3rd down package both defensive tackles line up in the B gap outside the guards. Ruud and Hayes were both still in at linebacker.

Now in this case Bates dialed up a blitz. In this blitz Hovan takes an outside rush in his B gap. Ruud blitzed through the right side A gap. And White looped inside to the opposite A gap. Wilkerson rushes upfield in the B gap and Bennett rushes outside the offensive tackle.

The Saints had their offensive line take a pass set. And then the fullback led up on Hayes. He took the block on with his right shoulder and turned it back to the right side of the defense. White had chance to make the tackle in the backfield but I am not sure he saw Thomas carrying the ball till the last minute. So he missed the tackle. Then Corey Lynch had an opportunity to tackle Thomas for maybe a one yard gain. Instead Thomas ran straight through his tackle attempt. And finally at the end of the run Piscitelli had a chance to hold Thomas to about 10 yards on the carry but instead Thomas made a spin move and Piscitelli also missed the tackle. In the end he gained 18 yards all told.

Culprits: Greg (Stylez) White, Corey Lynch, and Sabby Piscitelli.

Well there you have it folks. Those 6 plays accounted for 104 rushing yards and a touchdown in yesterday's game against the Saints. Now I am sure it would be hard to condense all that information into a nice and neat soundbite for TV or radio but it is what it is. Just remember the next time you hear somebody saying X group was THE reason why we didn't perform on defense, more than likely they don't know what the hell they are talking about.

It is what it is.

Two Thoughts On the Patriots/Jets Game

First let me talk about the Patriots' defense. A lot of people are rightly concerned about their defense after seeing the Buffalo Bills run up and down the field on them Monday night. I have to say I share their concern. Now unfortunately some kind of way my DVR went crazy on me so I don't have the advantage of having seen the game twice, but watching it live there were some obvious problems with what the Pats were trying to do. The biggest problem I see is that they are trying to have their defensive line play in their 4-3 just like they did in their 3-4, the interior linemen at least. That means both defensive tackles are two gapping instead of playing a one gap defense.

Now I am about to get in the weeds a little here but I will try to be clear about what I am trying to say. In a 3-4 defense part of the reason why the two defensive ends and nose tackle can two gap and get away with it is spacing. In general on early downs they are never more than a gap away from the each other presnap so after the snap even if they get blocked then they are still usually only a gap and a half away from the next guy. This makes it easier for the two middle linebackers to cover their backs. But when you have both defensive tackles trying to two gap in a 4-3 you pretty much start out with them being a gap and a half away from each other. Not only that but they also only have one middle linebacker now to cover for them. The reason the Bills were able to gash them on the run was because their linebackers had no clue which gaps would be open nor where their defensive tackles were going to fit. For that reason at times there were gaps that simply wet unfilled and the Bills running backs took advantage.

The most curious thing about this development to me was that I figured after the Patriots traded Richard Seymour that they would actually go back to playing a base 3-4. This was prior to the game of course and before Jerod Mayo got hurt but my thing is they now have one less top notch defensive lineman but they still are stocked at linebacker, why not go back to what you have been doing so well for years now? Not only that but with the Bills basically advertising all preseason that they would be in no huddle a lot this year it made more sense to me to have more linebackers in the game who would be in the kind of shape that it would take to go against a no huddle offense instead of having more defensive linemen.

Bill Belicheck obviously didn't see it that way as they stuck with their 4-3 for the first game. But I have to wonder if they might revert back now against a division opponent who has a top notch running game after seeing the results from Monday. I mean honestly, in my opinion, they only have two ways of fixing their run defense. Either they coach the defensive tackles to play in one gap even if they play heavy into the guards or go back to the 3-4 defense. I think going back to what gave them 3 Superbowl rings is probably the best way to go but again that's just my personal opinion.


The second thing I want to talk about is the Jets' blitzing defense against the Patriots passing offense. Now although Tom Brady put up big numbers on Monday, I was troubled by something that I noticed. And it wasn't him favoring his knee which Ron Jaworski seems to be obsessed with. No the thing that I noticed was something I also noticed at the tail end of the Patriots' Superbowl run and especially in the Superbowl. Tom Brady has lost some of his nerve.

What do I mean by that? Well if you go back and look at the early part of 2007, the year Brady shattered the NFL record with 50 passing touchdowns, he attacked defenses down the field with a vengence in every single game. Most of the time those throws went to Randy Moss and it did not matter if he was double covered or even in a few cases triple covered, Brady was going to give him a chance to make a play on the ball. The outcome was generally good because if there is one guy I would ever want in the NFL making a play on the ball in the air its Moss. However right before the playoffs started and during the playoffs culminating in the Superbowl loss, Brady seemed to revert back to textbook quarterback play where he started allowing the defense to dictate where he threw the ball.

Because what he is doing now is truly what coaches coach quarterbacks to do, not many commentators are going to end up saying anything about it. But in the process he is turning one of the most dynamic players in the game in Moss into not much more than a possession receiver. If I am a defensive coordinator I now know that if I show even a semblance of double coverage on Moss that Brad is going away from him. And that gives all the advantage in the world to secondary guys for the other team.

The Jets however are an agressive, nasty, blitzing team and that means they will be showing a lot of single high safety. I am sure the will still double Moss on occasion but they will do it with a whole lot of camoflauge. Ironically because of this the Jets may well find themselves on the wrong side of an asskicking. See the Bills had a pretty good scheme against the Patriots on Monday whereby no matter what they were doing they still made it look as if they had Moss doubled. So Brady just threw the ball underneath and didn't really take any shots down the field. But if the Jets have a gameplan similar to what they did against the Texans the are going to give Brady the green light to go up top early and often. And if they do all you are going to hear is "INCOMING!!!"

Now I know most commentators will focus on the way the blitzes will affect Brady and the offensive line but generally the teams that actually bother Brady are those who can rush with just a four man line. When teams bring blitzes he can usually identify which receiver will have a one on one match up or if he will be able to push it down field. So all I am saying is pay attention to the times the Jets blitz this week and how much Brady makes the play with a big play downfield to Moss. As an alternative he may go downtown to Joey Galloway too who will definitely end up with the better match up of cornerbacks usually when teams blitz and he still has the wheels to get open on the deep balls.