Praying For A Miracle: NY Superbowl Edition

I was on twitter last night minding my own business when I happened across this tweet by Chris Mortensen of ESPN:

Only legit argument against NY/NJ is that it's a QB/offense driven league & wind (not snow) is neutralizing element. That's life in NFL.

Now because it looks as if the Superbowl bid going to New York/New Jersey is a forgone conclusion I hadn't felt the need to weigh in on whether I thought it was a good idea or a bad idea, but since Mortensen is saying that there's only one legitimate argument against it I figured I would go ahead and give my two cents.

Its not a bad idea, its a turrible idea!

And yes I used my Charles Barkley voice.

Let me first begin by stating the obvious case against it. Its cold.

I'm going to repeat that.

It's COLD.

I grew up in Memphis under the illusion that I actually liked cold weather. See I had this philosophy that no matter how hot it got outside there were only so many clothes you could take off before you got in trouble. But if its cold you can always just put on more layers.

Sounds good right?

Yeah, that worked right up until I spent a year on the roster of the New York Jets. That philosopher worked for "Memphis cold", but New York cold laughed at my ass.

Right to my face.

I know that New York folks will now come at me calling me all kindsa punks for hating the cold weather. Well guess what? I'll be that. But what we all have to acknowledge is that it being oppressively cold outside does not make for a a great tourist experience.

And make no mistake about it, yeah there's a game played during Superbowl week but Superbowl is about a LOT more than just the game.

I realize there will be tons of things to do in terms of night life and there are certain very high profile tourist attractions you can visit indoors, but answer me this. What in hell are most average fans in town to "experience" a Superbowl going to do during the day?

See I know what they do during the day when the Superbowl is in San Diego or Miami, or Tampa or New Orleans. They go take the kids to the many football camps in and around the city. They go visit the NFL Experience. They walk around downtown star watching/drinking/networking etc. If there's a beach involved that's always a popular hangout during the day.

Who in hell is going to walk outside in New York or New Jersey in late January early February for anything other than an emergency?

For this Superbowl to work from a fan's perspective everybody involved will have to pray to Al Gore that global warming not only exists (believe me it does) but that it will also greatly accelerate just in time for it to be nice and toasty in New York and New Jersey in the winter of 2014 (believe me it won't).

Don't get me wrong, I realize and appreciate the stature New York has as a media mecca and one of the major cities of the world, not just the United States. But there is one thing that negates all of that.

Its going to be cold!

But understand this, it being cold is but just one problem I have with the Superbowl being in NY/NJ. Can't we keep it real for a minute? New York is and always will be a target for terrorists. Now I am not of the mind that we should live our lives in fear of these idiots and their warped religious ideology, but facts are facts. For what every reason they are almost singularly obsessed with attacking that city. Having a Superbowl there is almost like putting kobe steak in front of a pitbull. Now I have full faith in the both the NYC police force and our federal government to protect New York from an attempted terrorist attack during the Superbowl, but have you thought about the measures they will have to take in order to do so?

If you think you hated flying before, just wait until you try to fly in to JFK or La Guardia for Superbowl. Imagine the show of force they will necessarily have to have around all league sponsored events. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if they either totally or partially closed down Times Square for that matter.

And really, could you blame them?

Again this is just the reality of the situation. Oh and by the way all of that security is going to cost a LOT of money for all you arm chair deficit hawks out there. Freedom isn't free after all.

So those are two of the negative aspects of the decision from a fan's perspective, but what about the game. Is it true that the only on the field worry that is legitimate is that wind is a neutralizing element in a quarterback driven league?

.....

.....

That's maybe the most naive take I have ever seen from a guy who generally is actually pretty reasonable.

You know who the snow and cold and wind might effect more than the quarterback?

THE KICKER!

But it's not just that this game is inviting an outcome decided by a bad long snap, a poor hold, or a slip right as the kicker makes contact.

No, the weather conditions will affect all of the players.

When its cold its not only hard to throw the ball, its also hard to catch it. And then after catching it, its hard to keep hold of it. Ball security will be the biggest loser in this game. And remember that historically its not just cold you have to be worried about in NY/NJ in February. There's this stuff called snow, and its white and wet and it can cause all kinds of chaos on a football field.

Tuck rule anyone?

Oh and if it snows hard enough no amount of HD in the world will make watching the game an enjoyable experience.

Also you know what players have a hard time doing in the cold?

Tackling.

Some of the worst tackling games you will ever see happen in sub freezing temperatures. Again, this is a fact, not just conjecture. Imagine trying to tackle a physical back like Adrian Peterson or Frank Gore when its 15 degrees outside.

Yeah, good luck with that.

Speaking of which, the league whilst praying to our former Vice President had better also cross their fingers that two iconic teams play in that game. Hey if its a Cowboys/Steelers game, cool. If its the Patriots/Giants, its all good. If its the Vikings/Jets, no problem.

But what if its the Seahawks and the Panthers? Or how about the Titans and the Lions?

Man do you REALLY think you are going to see a bunch of Panther's fans in New York kicking it? Do you really think the Titans have that kind of following?

SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIID

If one of the local teams gets in or one of those teams with big followings gets in then yeah you might get a sold out stadium of die hard fans willing to sit in the cold and cheer on their team to victory. If anybody else gets in they will have to hire people to sit in the stand like they do at the Oscars.

But I digress.

How about a more practical concern like.....logistics?

Where exactly are the two teams supposed to practice for two weeks? And please don't give me some cockamamie answer about practicing in a bubble. I've practiced in a bubble before and you ain't getting a lot done inside a bubble. NFL teams generally practice on two separate football fields, one for offense and one for defense. If you think a team is going to get the kind of preparation they need to play in the biggest game of their season if not for some of them their career practicing in a bubble I'm going to need you to pee in a cup.

So you're going to have two potentially woefully underprepared teams playing in probably much less than ideal conditions in the biggest game of the year not just for them but also for the league.

Seriously.

I know there are a bunch of coaches and GMs and owners coming out publicly to support the bid but really what else could they do at this point? If they know its going to happen why fight upstream just to invite scorn and ridicule? But understand this, if and when this game goes off and its an epic failure a lot of those same folks pumping it up in front of the cameras will be behind the scenes whispering "I told you so".

Now I will join everybody else in praying for a miracle that the game goes off without a hitch because I don't want to see the Superbowl fail in any year or in any city. But there are definitely a bunch of legitimate reason to not support this bid. To say that there aren't is to have a total disregard for reality and the facts on the ground. Sorry Mort but I can't drink that kool aid.

Upon Further Review

Ok, I will admit that I was pretty bummed out about the Superbowl last night. I just really didn't see the Saints beating the Colts, and definitely not in such a resounding fashion. Then to make matters worse I hear the talking heads after the game spewing all manner of hyperbole about the game that I knew even at first glance was BS. So I figured I would watch the game again and post about what actually happened and why.

Here goes.

First of all, if I had a vote for the MVP of this game it wouldn't go to Drew Brees, although he played one helluva game. No, my MVP would have to be Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Over the years I have heard both offensive and defensive coordinators hyped up to unrealistic levels so I generally take it all with a grain of salt. But after watching the game a second time there is no doubt that Williams came out on top of his chess match with Peyton Manning. So that is where I will start this discussion.

The Saints began the game with a true 3-4 defensive alignment and personnel. That means they had one less defensive lineman than usual, and one more linebacker than normal. They inserted linebacker Kevin Mitchell into the line up and for the first quarter or so they stayed with it when the Colts came out with their two wide receiver packages. Now anybody will tell you that switching from a 4-3 defense to a true 3-4 in a matter of two weeks is almost impossible. This wasn't the Saints just going with a 3 man rush. They also had their outside linebackers, guys who were used to playing 5 yards off the ball most plays, up on the line and either pass rushing outside or covering the Colts tight end Dallas Clark and being physical with him.

When the Colts went to their 3 wide receiver sets, then the extra linebacker would go out and a defensive back would come in. The defensive back would then play over the slot receiver while both outside guys still lined up on the line which left Johnathan Vilma as the only inside linebacker in the box.

Maybe the most interesting and important note though is that the Saints decided to play a lot of man to man defense against the Colts. Whether it was 2 man under, Cover 1 or some form of matchup Cover 3, the Saints weren't afraid at all to get up on the Colts receivers and challenge them at the line of scrimmage. The Saints played 2 man in particular a large part of the game and its the main reason why Reggie Wayne didn't have a big day. They tried to funnel him outside and then roll Darren Sharper over the top of him and it worked most of the game.

Of course Peyton Manning is no slouch either so as the game went on he started to make adjustments too. It became apparent that when the Saints went to their nickel version of the 3-4 and Vilma was all alone in the middle that the Colts would be able to run the ball against that set up. So Manning started leaning on Joseph Addai and Donald Brown when he saw the Saints lined up that way. And when the Colts got their running game going then they were able to make the Saints respect their play action pass. On the touchdown to Pierre Garcon the Saints were in some form of Cover 2 or 2 man but Peyton noticed that the safety Roman Harper was rolled up closer to the line of scrimmage than normal. Once Garcon got inside the cornerback it was just a foot race between he and Harper and it was obvious who would win that one. Peyton puts the ball on the money and the Colts have a touchdown.

At that point Coach Williams makes an adjustment. Instead of having Vilma in the middle by himself when they run their 3-4 look with the nickel back in, he pulls one of the outside rushers back off the line with him, in most cases Scott Fujita, and he leaves the backside of the Colts formation open run fit wise. To be honest with you, the adjustment wasn't fundamentally sound at all. I mean eventually Williams made a little tweak and rolled down the safety to open side of the formation, but the truth is had the Colts noticed or been able to predict when the Saints would go with that defensive alignment, they could have gotten the corner on running plays with ease for big runs. But alas it didn't happen and Williams was able to get away with it. Its part of the reason why the Saints had more success against the run in the second half.

Its important to note here that even with all the personnel and alignment adjustments, Gregg Williams was still blitzing the hell out of Peyton. They didn't sack him and they didn't get any of the big hits he talked about before the game, but I did think a few time he had to rush some throws and maybe not put it where he would have liked.

Having said that Peyton was still masterful most of the game. One one drive he noticed that the Saints were in 2 man a lot and he ended up featuring Dallas Clark the whole way down the field. That is when they scored their second and final touchdown to go up 17-13 and things were still looking up for them.

Another thing the Saints did was go to their base 4-3 defense when the Colts were backed up or in the red zone. That is partly the reason why the Colts were unable to convert on 3rd and 1 before halftime because the Saints had their 4 man line plus a linebacker walked up and they were really stout against the run there. Of course running a fullback dive probably wasn't the best call in that situation either.

The Saints were also great at changing up their coverages at odd times and throwing Peyton some curve balls. He just about threw a pick right to Tracy Porter on an out route to Wayne when Porter, who was lined up on the slot receiver inside of Wayne at the snap, buzzed underneath the Wayne and ened up directly in the throwing lane. If that ball wasn't low and outside the Saints would have had two picks last night instead of one.

Now on the play that sealed the deal for the Saints I have to say that was the worst decision of the night for Manning. The Colts were down at that point 24-17 and driving to tie the score up. The Colts had Collie and Reggie Wayne on the same side with Collie out wide. For whatever reason they decided to motion Collie inside and have both he and Wayne run slant routes. Williams decided to send all 3 linebackers and rush Peyton with 6 guys. What that meant is that there were 5 guys left to defend the pass and the Colts had 3 wideouts and their tight end all out on routes. In theory this was Cover 1 where the two corners, the nickelback and a safety were in man to man with one safety back deep helping on go routes. In reality the one deep safety, Darren Sharper, actually came up to jump the slant route by Collie. Now the reason the decision for Manning to throw the ball to Wayne was a bad one is two fold.

For one, all game the Saints corners had been playing inside of the Colts wide receivers when they took an outside release. Because of the design of the play Wayne stemmed outside first and then tried to slant across Tracy Porter's face. But Porter was already sitting inside of the route and the truth is it didn't really take much of a break for him to pick it off and take it to the house.

For two, and more importantly, on the other side of the formation Garcon had one on one coverage with a rolled up corner who had no safety help. He beat his guy off the line and he was wide open for the deep ball. Peyton's protection held up and he had the time to throw that ball up to Garcon for a big play if not a touchdown. Instead he made the blind throw to Wayne and that didn't work out so well for him.

Now when it comes to the Colts defense against Drew Brees and the Saints offense, all I can say is that it looked like somebody kidnapped Larry Coyer and the ghost of Ron Meeks was coaching the Colts D yesterday. I am probably being generous if I say the Colts blitzed five times the whole game yesterday. And on a couple of those blitzes the nickelback didn't even really rush Brees, but instead kind of got caught in no man's land. Half way into a rush and half way trying to stay back in coverage.

To make matters worse not only did the Colts not switch up their coverages much all game, but they also allowed the Saint's wide receivers and tight ends to get free releases for the overwhelming majority much of the game. It was as if they were so afraid of them that they were scared to touch them.

So they didn't send any pressure to try to disrupt Brees' rhythm AND they didn't chuck the receivers to try to disrupt their rhythm either.

Who the hell thought that was a good idea?!

It got so bad that after spending much of the first half keeping guys in to chip on the Colts' rushers and leak out late as well as putting in a back up tackle at tight end to help out on protections, in the 4th quarter the Saints started releasing 5 guys out into routes on a regular basis without even a hint of chipping. Aside from the one big sack by Dwight Freeney, the Colts didn't sniff Brees for most of the game. And I will tell you this much, if they ever hope to be able to win another Superbowl, they are going to have to get some inside guys who can pass rush.

Also it was embarrassing to see the Colts defense get caught not lined up and confused several times during the game. I mean its not like they were running anything new but yet and still the Saints were able to quick count them and get cheap first downs just because they couldn't get lined up correctly before the snap. And while I am on the subject starting outside linebacker Phillip Wheeler looked like confused damn near the whole game.

That's not about talent. That's poor coaching, plain and simple.

I don't want to take anything away from Brees' performance last night because it was truly awesome. But I bet you dollars to donuts that by the 4th quarter he had to be feeling like he was throwing against a scout team. He had plenty of time on most of his throws and he was hitting guys who were wide freaking open. Marques Colston was killing the Colts in the seams, especially when he lined up in the slot, but you never saw the Colts adjust and try to get physical with him at the line of scrimmage. In short the Colts defense made it too easy for a quarterback like Brees and an offensive mind like Saints head coach Sean Payton to march up and down the field.

Still even with the performance by the Saints offense, I would have to give my game ball to Coach Williams. The reasons are as follows.

1. Sean Payton called another silly ass end around that lost 8 yards and almost took his team out of scoring range. It ended up not being a big deal per se because they picked up a first down on the next play putting them on the 3 yard line. But from there they weren't able to get the ball in with 4 tries and had to turn the ball over on downs.

2. Even the folks who picked the Saints to win probably never could have imagined that they would hold the Colts to just 17 points. I know I didn't. Coach Williams' ability to adjust as the game went on was the deciding factor in the game in my opinion.

Now for all of the bullshit analysis you will hear over the next few days about how the Saints "dominated" the Colts and out played them for three quarters, lets be clear about a few things. For the overwhelming majority of the first 3 quarters the Colts were leading the game. In fact going into the 4th quarter the Colts were still up a point. And with a little over 5 minutes left they were driving to tie up the score at 24 all. In fact one play in particular in the 2nd quarter could have changed the whole complexion of the game. On 3rd and 2 the Saints blitzed Peyton again and played man to man but this time the Colts had the perfect play on. They ran a bunch of crossing routes and had Garcon run a crossing route in the opposite direction underneath them. He got off the line well and Peyton hit him in stride right in his hands. If he doesn't drop that ball he had nothing but green grass in front of him. Sharper, was going in the opposite direction trailing one of the deeper crossing routes and was in no position to make a play on him. It would have been a foot race at that point that would have ended in either a touchdown or a very long gain.

That didn't happen of course and instead of going up 17-3 or even 13-3 the Colts ended the half only up 10-6. And because of that the onside kick they recovered right out of the halftime took on a much bigger significance.

All in all it was a great game and the Saints went out and took that win. But don't be fooled by the chattering classes, that loss fell on more than just Peyton Manning for the Colts. I hope at some point someone asks Coyer what the rationale was for not blitzing Brees especially when his best pass rushing defensive lineman was less than 100%. It made no sense to me and contributed greatly to the Saints not only scoring but possessing the ball for long stretches of time.

On the flip side my hats off to Gregg Williams. On the biggest stage in the NFL going against one of the best quarterbacks to ever do it, he is the one who ended up with checkmate.

A Tale Of Two Halfs

The first half of the Superbowl went almost exactly how I envisioned it. The Saints moved the ball but couldn't get in the endzone. Dwight Freeney started the game and got a big sack. The Saints ran another ill advised reverse/end around that ended up not hurting them but still lost 7 yards. The Colts got up 4 points on them and they were going to get the ball first in the second half probably to go up 11 points. And then, with an onside kick to start the second half, the game totally changed.

Once the Saints were able to turn the tables and go up on the Colts everything worked in reverse. Not only did Peyton end up throwing a pick six with his team down seven and him pressing to make a play, Matt Stover missed a field goal while his counterpart on the Saints Matt Hartley made all 3 of his. I was even right/wrong about the winning team winning by a touchdown or more. Just in this case it was the Saints, not the Colts, winning it going away.

I take my hat off to the Saints, they made the plays when they had to. They showed incredible moxy coming out down against the vaunted Colts offense and doing what they had to do to change the game. Drew Brees was almost flawless and Pierre Thomas had a HUGE day for them. Their defense also made big plays at critical times including stopping the Colts on 3rd and 1 right before the half which forced them to punt and set up their second field goal to cut the Colts lead down to 4.

I admit I called this one wrong, it happens to everybody I guess. But I don't have to like it!

LOL

Superbowl Prediction, Colts Vs Saints

I had too much to say so I had to break it up into two videos. Enjoy.

False Equivalence

Since the New York Yankees won their 27th World Series on Wednesday night, by far the most of any Major League Baseball team, there have been many many conversations about how their level of spending gives them an unfair advantage. Now to me this is an obvious truth. The fact that every single year the Yankees have the ability to look around the league and cherry pick the best guys off other teams with the enticement of big money simply can't be disputed. Now that is not a guarantee of success, but it definitely makes it a lot more likely.

I am not saying this diminishes their achievements in anyway, I am just saying that you can't over look what is staring you right in the face. If they don't have Mark Texiera or C. C. Sabathia, their two big free agent signings in the last offseason, do they win the championship this year? I highly doubt it. Still under the current rules they are working under there is nothing untoward about what they have done. It makes sense for them to put the best team together than money can buy because that is the way Major League Baseball is now set up.

But all of a sudden Yankee fans are offended by people pointing this fact out. And one of their biggest fall back arguments seems to be "Yeah well if it was that easy why aren't the Washington Redskins winning the Superbowl?" This is a patently ridiculous argument but you will actually hear sports pundits on the radio and see them on TV and in print actually repeating it. Not only are the NFL and Major League Baseball just two different animals in general, but the Redskins in particular are exactly the wrong team to use in comparison.

See with baseball you can literally run your team like you are a fantasy owner if you have enough money. Because there are only about 15 or so guys on a roster and because there is no salary cap you can literally pay to have all stars at every position on the field. When you look at what the Yankees have done over the years that is basically exactly what they have done.

In the NFL by contrast you generally can only sign but so many big name players from other teams because of the constraints of the salary cap. So of the 22 starters on offense and defense you might be able to pluck two or maybe three at the most pro bowl type players away from other teams to try to make a run at a championship.

But there is also the matter of team chemistry and this is the biggest difference in the two sports. With 53 guys on an NFL roster there are going to be challenges to keep everyone on the same page. You have to mesh a lot of different attitudes and a lot of different egos into one common mindset to try to get the job done. With much fewer players on a MLB roster you don't have have the same level of cohesiveness. Besides that when there is a problem its a lot easier to get with one guy or two guys to address it than having to police a bunch of guys on a NFL team.

A related major difference is how you deal with a free agent "bust". See for the Yankees and other MLB teams with big revenues, if they sign a guy that doesn't produce then they either trade him, cut him, and or pay another guy to replace him. In the NFL on the other hand if you sign a big time free agent and they don't work out then you are screwed for at least a few years because of the constraints of the salary cap. That means that the guy pretty much HAS to play for the first couple of years of their contract at least and it also means that if there is a personality conflict then the team just has to deal with it. That means coaches can be undermined and game plans can be hurt because of one guy who can't be cut or traded.

With the Redskins however the problem is actually that their owner Dan Snyder DOES try to run his ball club like a Major League Baseball franchise. He truly believes that any problem on a football field can be fixed if you just throw money at it. Just look at his teams over the years. The most recognizable guys generally are people that he took from another team. Best player on offense this year is probably Clinton Portis who came from where? Denver. Best player on defense this year has probably been London Fletcher, who came from where? Buffalo.

Year after year after year Snyder, instead of focusing on building his teams from the ground up through the draft and player development, just looks on the list of free agents from other teams and starts licking his chops. That is the exactly WRONG way to run an NFL franchise and its why his teams will not win a championship. In the NFL you can't have a bunch of mercenaries coming to your team every year and expect to have long term success. That is just too much turnover and too much turmoil and nobody ever gets to stay long enough to establish themselves as a leader and for the team to establish an identity.

Now I know people compare Snyder many times to Jerry Jones down in Dallas, but that is a patently ridiculous comparison when you get beyond the bluster. Look back and those Cowboys teams that won Superbowls. Where did the overwhelming majority of the talent come from?

Homegrown, that's where.

Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith, Moose Johnson, the offensive line, Tony Tolbert, Ken Norton, Larry Brown, and the list goes on and on. Yeah he brought in some guys to get them over the hump, but the heart of the team were guys they drafted and coached up to Pro Bowl status. Hell look at the Cowboys even now. Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Miles Austin, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, Terrance Newman and again the list goes on and on.

Now try to think of a starter, not even necessarily a Pro Bowler, other than Chris Cooley that Snyder has drafted and had thrive over the last 5 years.

The point is you don't build an NFL winner in the same way that you build a MLB winner. When you look at the teams that win Superbowls year in and year out a substantial part of their team is always, and I mean ALWAYS home grown. And before anybody starts hollering about the New England Patriots let me throw some names out, Teddy Bruschi, Lawyer Milloy, Tom Brady, Troy Brown, Assante Samuel, Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest, again the list goes on and on.

That is the anti thesis of what you will find with perennial MLB World Series champs or contenders. For them its all about finding guys off other teams to bring in as center pieces for their team to help them bring home the title.

Again I am not hating on the Yankees for that, hell more power to them, I am just saying we have to be honest about it.

It is what it is.