Measuring Improvement

Last season was a disaster for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, there's no two ways about it.  A record of 3-13 is never acceptable no matter what the circumstances.  Yes we can all make a bunch of excuses or give countless explanations but the NFL is pretty much a bottom line business.  Your record is who you are.

This year there is reason for modest optimism.  We have added a lot of talent from the draft.  Our coaching staff is a lot more stable.  And everyone at least seems to be on the same page.

Previously I gave the over under for wins this season at 6.  I stand by that but as a guy who bleeds Buccaneers Pewter and Silver I am hopeful for the over.  But its worth taking a look at another measurement of progress.

13, 13, 24, 19, 28, 31, 23,

No those aren't the lottery numbers from last night.  Those are some of the margins of defeat from last year.  In 5 games we were outscored by 19 points or more. Twice that number was 28 or higher.

When you get blown out in games that gives fans the impression that you don't know what you're doing and they are less likely to give you the benefit of the doubt.  I think that's why last season was so demoralizing.  Its not like we were losing on the last play of those games.  Sometimes the games were practically over at halftime.

So there's two sides to this coin.  If the Bucs should go out and win 6 or 7 games but are competitive, meaning they lose by single digits, in most or all of the other 10 or so, I think average fans will start to come back on board.

If, however, they win 6 or 7 games, but then turn around and get blown out in several others then I think the average fan will clamor for change.

My money is on the former though for one particular reason.  I really believe our defense will be much improved this year.  So the likelihood that most teams score 31 points let alone beat us by 31 will be lessened by that fact.  We do have to pray that everyone stays healthy though and some guys are going to have to play their tails off, but that's how I see the season going this year at least.

What say you?

Choking The Life Out Of The Zombie Talking Point

This evening I had a pretty spirited debate with a Buccaneer fan over on the joebucsfan site about the direction of the Bucs. In the course of this back and forth this particular fan repeated the now familiar tripe about the Bucs not REALLY improving all that much in the last 6 games because they were just playing teams that "didn't have anything to play for". Well I left a comment about that which on reflection probably deserves its own post so here it goes.

Not sure how you think I am cherry picking over the last six games, but since this talking point won’t die let me break it down for you and everybody else.

The Bucs played two playoff teams out of the last six games and played one team twice that ended up with a winning record. When the Bucs played the Falcons the first time, the Panthers, and the Jets, all three were still trying to get into the playoffs. When we played the Saints they were angling for a number 1 seeding. So thats 4 out of the 6 games where the teams all DID have something to play for. The second game with the Falcons they were trying to do something that had never been done in their franchises history. Back to back winning seasons. So that makes 5 out of 6 games. Now the Seahawks sucked ass most of the year so yeah I guess you can write that one off, but I watched the game and I didn’t see them lay down for us. Hell they were WINNING at half time.

As for improvement, understand that I didn’t say we became the Steel Curtain or the Purple People Eaters. I said we improved. And as Jay Z said recently, men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.

In the last 6 games we got 7 picks, 11 sacks and 5 forced fumbles. Our opponents scoring average went down substantially to around 18 pts per for those 6 games. We held the superbowl champs to 17 points which is the same as what the Cowboys held them to the week prior.

Again, still not the old Ravens defense, but how can you look at that evidence and still not admit that they improved in a major way? I understand that there are some folks who are in the media in this area who have tried to poo poo the improvement but mostly thats because nobody ever challenged them on the substance of their argument. If somebody did challenge them most of them would fall on their face.

I root for the Bucs on Sunday from my heart but I blog about them from my head. It is what it is.

I am smart enough to realize that some Bucs fans have already heard this so many times that they won't be dissuaded about it, but at least if they read this post they won't be able to say that nobody ever told them the truth.

Real talk.